Migratory movements in Africa I

Urbanisation in Sub-Saharan Africa

A huge amount of African cities are expected to be affected by the impact of climate change, such as storm flooding, costal erosion, rising sea levels, inundation and obstructed drainage (Parnell and Walawege 2011). Indeed, scientists predict an increasing occurrence of certain events, leading to infrastructural damage, sanitation and water systems damage, impacts on transportation and tourism, African urbanisation is rising up high. Relating to my previous post, the population in Africa is growing very fast and has reached an entire population of more than one billion in 2015 (World Bank, 2015). Even though Africa is the least urbanised continent, it’s supposed to have a higher number of urban population than North America, Latin America or Europe (Parnell and Walawege 2011).

Figure 1: Rural and urban population growth Africa and Europe. Source: (Parnell and Walawege 2011).

Considering figure 1, Africa has a nearly exponentially growth, whereas the European development seems to stagnate in the future. Currently, one-third of urban growth Africa is caused by migration, as two-thirds are initiated by an above-average fertility rate. 20% of the total global refugees are to be found in Africa; 45% of these are internally displaced (Parnell and Walawege 2011). This can be effected by certain reasons like conflicts or war, but at least some displacements are assumed to be caused environmental hazards determined by climate change. Migration decisions are made of social, cultural, political, economic or environmental factors. For instance, migration is often a response to environmental change, that upcoming yield decrease and crop failure is raising economic pressure.

Figure 2: Urban and Rural population movement in 2009. Source: (Parnell and Walawege 2011).

Examining figure 2, urbanisation is not a usually common pattern, it depends on certain backgrounds as I mentioned before. Indeed, in certain countries, urban to rural migration is much more commonplace than rural to urban migration. A movement or a relocation can also be temporary and as a positive adaptive response to livelihoods. Nowadays, for instance, one could migrate to buffer disaster and climate change risk (Parnell and Walawege 2011). As McGranahan claims: “It is likely that as a consequence of climate change this movement will increase and intensify, and possibly become more permanent. What is not clear is whether it will result in the growth of informal settlements inhabited by impoverished migrants and nonmigrants in persistent conflict” (McGranahan et al., 2009, p. 12). Certain motivations for migration differ, as they are caused by divergent encouragements, but it is likely referring to McGranahan, that environmental changes could foster further migration movements.

The listed push and pull factors below, shows motivations of migratory movements:

Pull factors for population movements:

-       Economic and social benefits influence urban growth

-       Services like subsidised housing

-       Low skilled job opportunities

-       Economic growth of cities attracts migratory movements

Push factors for population movements:

-       Famine and droughts pushing the poor off

-       Loss of land and agricultural mechanisation

-       Poverty and rural conflicts leads people to drive off

-       Advantage of social environment in cities

  

Urbanisation itself, is a big challenge, but it gets worse during the increasing growth. Cities are more likely to be vulnerable to natural hazards. Feasible risks, such as flooding or rising sea level will occur due to within bigger population. As I explained the upcoming urban growth in Africa, my next post will deal with the occurring risks in urban regions.

References:

International Organisation Migration (2009): Migration, Environment and

Climate Change: Assessing the Evidence.

McGranahan, G., Mitlin, D., Satterthwaite, D., Tacoli, C., Turok, I. (2009): Africa’s

Urban Transition and the Role of Regional Collaboration, Human Settlements

Working Paper Series Theme: Urban Change-5, IIED, London, p. 58.